It's a (somewhat learned) gut feeling kind of thing, and I try and estimate as soon as possible.
Most times I read a case and have a rough idea of how long it's going to take, so just enter the estimate there and then.
Other times I'm not quite sure what is going to be involved, maybe it's an area of the product I'm not familiar with or haven't been in for a while, so I'll take a couple of minutes to have a quick scout. If I'm struggling to get a good handle on it after five minutes I'll make a gut estimate based on what I've seen already and how complex I think it may be, erring on a larger estimate to include further research.
In the end it all balances out, sometimes you instantly estimate an hour for something that takes two days, but other times something scares you into estimating a week but takes just a few hours. After a while your estimates start to get within a +/- 20% or better, which is generally OK over a number of cases.
The best thing is to get the estimate in as soon as you can so that any red flags can be raised for the project, and as you get into a case properly and realise your estimate is off by a big margin, then simply update your estimate.
With this method you might find yourself thinking you're over-estimating, but you'll soon find that you aren't once you have a few months' worth of estimate history behind you that shows things balancing relatively well.
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这是一种（某种程度上是学到的）直觉，我会尝试尽快进行估计。
大多数时候，我读了一个案例，大致了解需要多长时间，所以只需当场输入估计值即可。
其他时候我不太确定将涉及什么内容，也许这是我不熟悉或有一段时间没有接触过的产品领域，所以我会花几分钟时间来了解一下快速侦察。如果我在五分钟后很难很好地处理它，我会根据我已经看到的内容以及我认为它可能有多复杂做出一个直觉估计，错误地做出更大的估计以包括进一步的研究。
最后一切都会平衡，有时你会立即估计一个小时才能完成需要两天的事情，但有时有些事情会让你害怕估计一周但只需要几个小时。一段时间后，您的估计值开始达到 +/- 20% 或更好，这在许多情况下通常是可以接受的。
最好的办法是尽快获得估算，这样就可以为项目提出任何危险信号，当你正确地进入案例并意识到你的估算有很大偏差时，然后简单地更新你的估算。
使用这种方法，您可能会发现自己认为自己高估了，但一旦您有几个月的估计历史记录（显示事情相对平衡），您很快就会发现事实并非如此。
It's a (somewhat learned) gut feeling kind of thing, and I try and estimate as soon as possible.
Most times I read a case and have a rough idea of how long it's going to take, so just enter the estimate there and then.
Other times I'm not quite sure what is going to be involved, maybe it's an area of the product I'm not familiar with or haven't been in for a while, so I'll take a couple of minutes to have a quick scout. If I'm struggling to get a good handle on it after five minutes I'll make a gut estimate based on what I've seen already and how complex I think it may be, erring on a larger estimate to include further research.
In the end it all balances out, sometimes you instantly estimate an hour for something that takes two days, but other times something scares you into estimating a week but takes just a few hours. After a while your estimates start to get within a +/- 20% or better, which is generally OK over a number of cases.
The best thing is to get the estimate in as soon as you can so that any red flags can be raised for the project, and as you get into a case properly and realise your estimate is off by a big margin, then simply update your estimate.
With this method you might find yourself thinking you're over-estimating, but you'll soon find that you aren't once you have a few months' worth of estimate history behind you that shows things balancing relatively well.