Java平台的投资数据

发布于 2024-09-15 22:51:57 字数 381 浏览 8 评论 0原文

是否有可用的市场研究数据来计算 Java 平台 的总投资(全球、按地区、按国家)?这可能包括软件(应用程序服务器、IDE、分析工具)、硬件(Sun 服务器、字节码执行处理器)、人员(培训、书籍)、语言开发(Java、Clojure、Scala 等)、公共/私人(大学、 我正在做一个关于 JVM语言

的演示,并想以某种可靠的方式说明 Java 平台上的现有投资是巨大的,并且不会很快消失(想想 Cobol)。我确信这一点对于 IT 人员来说是很清楚的,但我想用一个美元数字来帮助业务人员真正理解这一点。

在评论开始之前,我认识到这个问题位于我们大多数人认为的“编程相关”的边缘。无论如何,了解这些信息可以帮助许多 IT 部门围绕平台的未来进行讨论,甚至可以帮助开发人员做出职业决策。

Are there any market research figures available calculating aggregate investment (worldwide, by region, by country) in the Java platform? This could include software (application servers, IDEs, profiling tools), hardware (Sun servers, bytecode executing processors), personnel (training, books), language development (Java, Clojure, Scala, ..), public/private (universities, governments, corporations), etc.

I'm working on a presentation on JVM languages and would like to illustrate—in some reliable manner—that existing investment in the Java platform is massive and not going anywhere anytime soon (think Cobol). I'm sure this point is clear for IT guys, but I'd like to put a dollar figure on it for the business folks to really drive the point home.

Before the comments start, I recognize that this question is on the outer edge of what most of us consider to be "programming related". Regardless, knowing this information can help many IT department discussions around the future of a platform, and may even assist developers make career decisions.

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荒芜了季节 2024-09-22 22:51:57

Oracle(以前的Sun)显然是第一个开始的地方。他们会很乐意向您宣传 Java 的好处!事实上,他们也是这样看待自己的:

Sun 副总裁 Rich Green 曾多次被提及,Sun 在 Java 方面的理想角色是“布道者”。 [O'Reilly Media,2002 年]

我推荐向他们询问这些数字。如果它们存在,Oracle 将拥有它们。

Oracle (previously Sun) would obviously be the first place to start. They'll be happy to evangelise the benefits of Java to you! In fact, that's how they see themselves:

Sun VP Rich Green has been quoted on countless occasions that Sun's ideal role with regards to Java is as an "evangelist." [O'Reilly Media, 2002]

I recommend asking them for those figures. If they exist, Oracle will have them.

寒冷纷飞旳雪 2024-09-22 22:51:57

众所周知,此类主题的市场研究是不可靠的 - 主要是因为没有人收集细粒度的数据,因此涉及大量猜测/推断。请记住,花在银行中从事 Java 应用程序的每位编码员和项目经理的工资上的钱从技术上来说是“对 Java 平台的投资”,尽管它远不及 Oracle 或 IBM 或任何其他科技公司的账簿。

我建议尝试从多个不同方向估计投资/活动水平,并对这些进行三角测量以获得明智的视图

以下是您可以使用的一些方法:

  • 使用类似 TIOBE 指数 作为编程语言份额的粗略估计,并将其乘以您对全球 IT 的最佳估计软件开发支出。
  • 将 Java 相关技术公司(Oracle、IBM、Google 等)的收入相加,并根据您猜测的与基于 Java 的产品相关的活动比例进行加权。然后乘以 1/(1-X),其中 X 是您估计在内部或与不在您列表中的小公司完成的软件投资的百分比
  • 查看新 JVM 语言(如 Clojure、Scala、 Jython、JRuby 等。您可以轻松地认为它们确保了 Java 平台的创新未来。

Market research on this kind of topic is notoriously unreliable - mainly because nobody collects the data at a granular level so there is a lot of guesswork / extrapolation involved. Remember that money spent on the salaries of every coder and project manager in a bank working on Java applications is technically "investment in the Java platofrm" even though it goes nowhere near the books of Oracle or IBM or any other tech company.

I'd suggest trying to estimate the investment / level of activity from a number of different directions, and triangulate these to come to an informed view

Here's some approaches that you could use:

  • Use something like the TIOBE index as a rough estimate of programming language share and multiply it by your best estimate of Global IT software development spending.
  • Add up the revenues of Java-aligned tech companies (Oracle, IBM, Google, etc...), weighted by whatever proportion of their activity you guess to be related to Java-based products. Then multiply by 1/(1-X) where X is the percentage of software investment you estimate to be done in-house or with smaller companies not on your list
  • Look at the growth rates and activity in new JVM languages like Clojure, Scala, Jython, JRuby etc. You can easily make the argument that these are ensuring an innovative future on the Java platform.
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