Google Web Optimizer - 距离获胜组合还有多长时间？
我已经在 Google Web Optimizer 中运行了 A/B 测试六个星期，但仍看不到结束的迹象。谷歌仍然表示：“我们还没有收集到足够的数据来显示任何重大结果。当我们收集更多数据时，我们应该能够向您展示一个获胜的组合。”
有什么方法可以判断谷歌距离做出决定还有多远吗？ （有谁知道它使用什么算法来决定是否有“高置信度获胜者”？）
根据 Google 帮助文档：
有时我们只是需要更多数据 能够达到高水平 信心。经过测试的组合 通常需要大约 200 次转换 让我们来判断它的表现 确定性。
但目前我们所有的转化都有超过 200 个对话：
230 / 4061（原始）
223 / 3937（变体 1）
205 / 3984（变体 2）
205 / 4007（变体 3）
还要运行多长时间？
感谢您的任何帮助。
I've had an A/B Test running in Google Web Optimizer for six weeks now, and there's still no end in sight. Google is still saying: "We have not gathered enough data yet to show any significant results. When we collect more data we should be able to show you a winning combination."
Is there any way of telling how close Google is to making up its mind? (Does anyone know what algorithm does it use to decide if there's been any "high confidence winners"?)
According to the Google help documentation:
Sometimes we simply need more data to
be able to reach a level of high
confidence. A tested combination
typically needs around 200 conversions
for us to judge its performance with
certainty.
But all of our conversions have over 200 conversations at the moment:
230 / 4061 (Original)
223 / 3937 (Variation 1)
205 / 3984 (Variation 2)
205 / 4007 (Variation 3)
How much longer is it going to have to run??
Thanks for any help.
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您可以使用 GWO 计算器根据您提供的许多假设来帮助确定测试需要多长时间。请记住，您的测试组合之间可能没有显着差异，在这种情况下，要找出最佳组合的测试将花费无限长的时间，因为不可能找到获胜者。
这是一个谜，但对于大多数（如果不是全部）统计测试，存在所谓的 p 值，即获得的概率这一结果与仅偶然观察到的结果一样极端。 GWO 测试一直运行，直到 p 值超过某个阈值（可能是 5%）。更清楚地说，GWO 测试一直运行到组合明显优于原始组合为止，这样结果只有 5% 的机会单独发生。
对于您的测试，似乎没有明显的赢家，这是平局。
You can use the GWO calculator to help determine how long a test will take based on a number of assumptions that you provide. Keep in mind though that it is possible that there is not significant difference between your test combination, in which case a test to see which is best would take an infinite amount of time, because it is not possible to find a winner.
That is a mystery, but with most, if not all, statistical tests, there is what's called a p-value which is the probability of obtaining a result as extreme as the one observed by chance alone. GWO tests run until the p-value passes some threshold, probably 5%. To be more clear, GWO tests run until a combination is significantly better than the original combination, such that the result only has a 5% chance of occurring by chance alone.
For your test there appears to be no significant winner, it's a tie.