Office 工具（除非可以解除基于 Web 的限制……这将需要比我们现在拥有的性能更好的 Web 浏览器）
Photoshop 和此类工具
聊天客户端（到目前为止，基于网络的同类工具令人失望）
当然，这并不是说上述任何工具都不能具有基于互联网的组件。
About 1% of users actually use Google Docs&Spreadsheets full-time. Almost all of the rest use Microsoft Office. So, no, off-the-cloud applications are not dead simply because a Google office suite exists. And those are, really, the only high-profile true web applications out there that are meant as desktop app replacements.
Webmails are a special case though. It actually makes sense to use those rather than a desktop app, since your email is next-to-useless without a connection anyway. But most applications don't NEED a full-time Internet connection. A word processor certainly doesn't.
What will definitely remain on the desktop:
Games
Small apps (calculator, notepad type of stuff)
Anything that generates data that needs to be secure (I don't imagine tons of people or companies want to trust their accounting details to Google, for example)
Web browsers (obviously)
IDEs (Visual Studio via Ajax? Come on...)
Auxiliary development tools (SVN, etc), since good security policy would forbid their use through a web browser
Anything that needs high enough performance that network latency would be an impediment
What will probably remain primarily on the desktop, at least for the next 5 years:
Office tools (unless web-based limitations can be lifted... which would require much better-performing web browsers than we have now)
Photoshop and such tools
Chat clients (web-based equivalents are disappointing so far)
That's not to say that any of the above cannot have an Internet-based component, of course.
I personally will never leave my stuff on the web under someone else's control. All of my photos and e-mails I keep on local hard drives that I control.
I prefer to make my own stuff available to me through the web on my own hardware. The only way to have reasonable performance and be productive when offline is to use local apps.
To me the future will be local, but remotely accessible and synchronized. At least for the next 20 years or so.
Not only do I think it's not dead, I think it's the way everyone will want to go once we have a few disastrous failures (ie, websites disappearing with users content that isn't backed up anywhere or severe privacy breeches as some large company loses control of access to the data they are protecting).
Google Chrome、IE8 和 Firefox 3.1 开始朝着更好的方向发展，但它们还需要数年时间才能足够成熟，以创建实际上可以完全取代桌面应用程序的 JavaScript 应用程序。 但这需要跨浏览器进行一些适当的标准化，而且我们都知道这在下一个千年左右之前不会发生。
Such applications are dead since 15 years, ever since Sun took market leadership with their JavaStation.
No, wait. They did not. And things are not "more and more" moving to network-based applications. Sure, there is Webmail, but even GMail is FAR away from the comfort of modern Outlook or Thunderbird Clients. Same for office. Google Docs is a nice toy for ocasional use, but it's vastly inferior to conventional Office suites.
The Desktop is not dead and it will not die anytime soon. Internet Applications are alternatives in some situations, but be are just starting getting proper functionality and performance. Let's face it: JavaScript performance is still a Joke, the IDE Support is not there yet and Browsers are too unstable at the moment.
Google Chrome, IE8 and Firefox 3.1 start to go in a better direction, but it will take years for them to be mature enough to create JavaScript applications that actually can fully replace desktop apps. But that would require some proper standardization accross browsers, and we all know that this will not happen before the next millennium or so.
例如，Outlook 最大的优点之一就是离线并继续工作。 当然，Google Gears 也有类似的功能，但您还是信任 Google 来保证您的公司安全。
There's no reason that many corporations will move to an online system simply because of security concerns.
For example, One of the greatest assets of Outlook is to go offline and continue working. Sure Google Gears has similar functionality, but then you're trusting Google with your corporate security.
If I look at the application that we've selling and at the applications I've written as a consultant, I must very much agree with you. Most of them are useless if there is no internet connection. Some do work in disconnected mode, some don't, but all of them are pretty useless if you cannot connect to the big supporting system hidden far far away.
On the other hand, I wouldn't want to say that everything will move into the cloud in 5 years. Too much work with porting. There will be desktop applications that will function as a thin and offline-able client (just like, for example, Google Reader does if you install Gears) and there will be fully "clouded" :) applications.
I have no idea what will happen in 10 years. If I put myself 10 years back (and that is very easy to do as I was writing a lot for a local computer magazine in that time), I totally couldn't predict how the computing will become internet-dependant in 2008.
The main piece of software I write controls electronic hardware (PXI boards and the like) for testing. Without "real" hardware, there's nothing to test. Even the very nature of the tests themselves prevent simultaneous access (once you set the state of a switch, you don't want someone else moving it).
So as long as you interact with any hardware, you're off-the-cloud.
Oh, and some companies have security issues with being on the Internet; I'd say security would also drive desktop apps with no connections.
IDE 可能会在很长一段时间内“脱离云端”，如果有的话……像 Emacs 这样强大的可定制编辑器也可能会“脱离云端”一段时间。
IDE's will probably be "off the cloud" for a long time, if ever... powerful customizable editors like Emacs will also probably stay "off the cloud" for a while.
10 years or more ago this would have been, "Are non-internet applications dead?"
There's things the cloud does better than desktop applications, and in those places I'm sure non-cloud applications will become increasingly rare. But there's plenty of applications where you might not want to use the cloud, the benefits don't outweigh the costs, or the complexity just isn't worth it.
It's a new tool, and it's a better tool than desktop applications for many things. However, you don't throw away a hammer when you buy a screwdriver, you simply reserve it for when a nail needs to be driven.
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大约 1% 的用户实际上全职使用 Google 文档和电子表格。 其余的人几乎都使用 Microsoft Office。 所以，不，云外应用程序并不会仅仅因为谷歌办公套件的存在而消亡。 事实上，这些是唯一备受瞩目的真正的 Web 应用程序，旨在替代桌面应用程序。
但网络邮件是一个特例。 使用这些应用程序实际上比使用桌面应用程序更有意义，因为无论如何，如果没有连接，您的电子邮件几乎毫无用处。 但大多数应用程序不需要全天候的互联网连接。 文字处理器当然不会。
肯定会留在桌面上的东西：
可能主要保留在桌面上：
当然，这并不是说上述任何工具都不能具有基于互联网的组件。
About 1% of users actually use Google Docs&Spreadsheets full-time. Almost all of the rest use Microsoft Office. So, no, off-the-cloud applications are not dead simply because a Google office suite exists. And those are, really, the only high-profile true web applications out there that are meant as desktop app replacements.
Webmails are a special case though. It actually makes sense to use those rather than a desktop app, since your email is next-to-useless without a connection anyway. But most applications don't NEED a full-time Internet connection. A word processor certainly doesn't.
What will definitely remain on the desktop:
What will probably remain primarily on the desktop, at least for the next 5 years:
That's not to say that any of the above cannot have an Internet-based component, of course.
我个人永远不会把我在网上的东西置于别人的控制之下。 我的所有照片和电子邮件都保存在我控制的本地硬盘上。
我更喜欢通过网络在我自己的硬件上提供我自己的东西。 离线时获得合理性能和高效工作的唯一方法是使用本地应用程序。
对我来说，未来将是本地的，但可以远程访问和同步。 至少在未来20年左右的时间里是这样。
我不仅认为它没有消亡，而且一旦我们遇到一些灾难性的失败（例如，网站消失，用户内容没有任何地方备份，或者一些大公司失去了严重的隐私保护），这就是每个人都想要走的路。控制对其所保护的数据的访问）。
I personally will never leave my stuff on the web under someone else's control. All of my photos and e-mails I keep on local hard drives that I control.
I prefer to make my own stuff available to me through the web on my own hardware. The only way to have reasonable performance and be productive when offline is to use local apps.
To me the future will be local, but remotely accessible and synchronized. At least for the next 20 years or so.
Not only do I think it's not dead, I think it's the way everyone will want to go once we have a few disastrous failures (ie, websites disappearing with users content that isn't backed up anywhere or severe privacy breeches as some large company loses control of access to the data they are protecting).
自从 Sun 以其 JavaStation 占据市场领导地位以来，此类应用程序已经消亡 15 年了。
不，等等。 他们没有。 而且事物并没有“越来越多”地转向基于网络的应用程序。 当然，有 Webmail，但即使是 GMail 也与现代 Outlook 或 Thunderbird 客户端的舒适程度相去甚远。 办公室也一样。 Google Docs 是一个适合偶尔使用的好工具，但它远远不如传统的 Office 套件。
桌面并没有消亡，也不会很快消亡。 在某些情况下，互联网应用程序是替代方案，但它们才刚刚开始获得适当的功能和性能。 让我们面对现实吧：JavaScript 性能仍然是一个笑话，IDE 支持还不存在，而且浏览器目前还太不稳定。
Google Chrome、IE8 和 Firefox 3.1 开始朝着更好的方向发展，但它们还需要数年时间才能足够成熟，以创建实际上可以完全取代桌面应用程序的 JavaScript 应用程序。 但这需要跨浏览器进行一些适当的标准化，而且我们都知道这在下一个千年左右之前不会发生。
Such applications are dead since 15 years, ever since Sun took market leadership with their JavaStation.
No, wait. They did not. And things are not "more and more" moving to network-based applications. Sure, there is Webmail, but even GMail is FAR away from the comfort of modern Outlook or Thunderbird Clients. Same for office. Google Docs is a nice toy for ocasional use, but it's vastly inferior to conventional Office suites.
The Desktop is not dead and it will not die anytime soon. Internet Applications are alternatives in some situations, but be are just starting getting proper functionality and performance. Let's face it: JavaScript performance is still a Joke, the IDE Support is not there yet and Browsers are too unstable at the moment.
Google Chrome, IE8 and Firefox 3.1 start to go in a better direction, but it will take years for them to be mature enough to create JavaScript applications that actually can fully replace desktop apps. But that would require some proper standardization accross browsers, and we all know that this will not happen before the next millennium or so.
许多公司没有理由仅仅因为安全问题而转向在线系统。
例如，Outlook 最大的优点之一就是离线并继续工作。 当然，Google Gears 也有类似的功能，但您还是信任 Google 来保证您的公司安全。
There's no reason that many corporations will move to an online system simply because of security concerns.
For example, One of the greatest assets of Outlook is to go offline and continue working. Sure Google Gears has similar functionality, but then you're trusting Google with your corporate security.
如果我查看我们销售的应用程序以及我作为顾问编写的应用程序，我一定非常同意您的观点。 如果没有互联网连接，其中大多数都是无用的。 有些确实可以在断开连接模式下工作，有些则不能，但如果您无法连接到隐藏在很远的地方的大型支持系统，那么所有这些都毫无用处。
另一方面，我不想说 5 年内一切都会迁移到云端。 移植工作太多。 将会有一些桌面应用程序将充当瘦且可离线的客户端（就像安装 Gears 时的 Google Reader 一样），并且将会有完全“云化”的应用程序:)。
我不知道10年后会发生什么。 如果我把自己放在 10 年前（这很容易做到，因为当时我为当地的一家计算机杂志写了很多文章），我完全无法预测 2008 年计算将如何变得依赖于互联网。
If I look at the application that we've selling and at the applications I've written as a consultant, I must very much agree with you. Most of them are useless if there is no internet connection. Some do work in disconnected mode, some don't, but all of them are pretty useless if you cannot connect to the big supporting system hidden far far away.
On the other hand, I wouldn't want to say that everything will move into the cloud in 5 years. Too much work with porting. There will be desktop applications that will function as a thin and offline-able client (just like, for example, Google Reader does if you install Gears) and there will be fully "clouded" :) applications.
I have no idea what will happen in 10 years. If I put myself 10 years back (and that is very easy to do as I was writing a lot for a local computer magazine in that time), I totally couldn't predict how the computing will become internet-dependant in 2008.
天哪，我希望不是，因为那是我的工作。
我编写的主要软件控制电子硬件（PXI板等）进行测试。 没有“真正的”硬件，就没有什么可测试的。 即使测试本身的本质也阻止了同时访问（一旦您设置了开关的状态，您就不希望其他人移动它）。
因此，只要您与任何硬件进行交互，您就脱离了云端。
哦，还有一些公司在互联网上存在安全问题； 我想说，安全性也会推动无连接的桌面应用程序。
Gosh, I hope not as that's my job.
The main piece of software I write controls electronic hardware (PXI boards and the like) for testing. Without "real" hardware, there's nothing to test. Even the very nature of the tests themselves prevent simultaneous access (once you set the state of a switch, you don't want someone else moving it).
So as long as you interact with any hardware, you're off-the-cloud.
Oh, and some companies have security issues with being on the Internet; I'd say security would also drive desktop apps with no connections.
IDE 可能会在很长一段时间内“脱离云端”，如果有的话……像 Emacs 这样强大的可定制编辑器也可能会“脱离云端”一段时间。
IDE's will probably be "off the cloud" for a long time, if ever... powerful customizable editors like Emacs will also probably stay "off the cloud" for a while.
视频编辑和其他资源密集型任务可能会在很长一段时间内远离云端。
Video editing and other resource intensive tasks will probably stay off the cloud for a long time.
十年或更久以前，这可能是“非互联网应用程序已死了吗？”
在某些方面，云比桌面应用程序做得更好，在这些地方，我确信非云应用程序将变得越来越罕见。 但是，在很多应用程序中，您可能不想使用云，收益不超过成本，或者复杂性不值得。
它是一个新工具，在很多方面都是比桌面应用程序更好的工具。 然而，当你购买螺丝刀时，你不会扔掉锤子，你只需保留它以备需要钉钉子时使用。
10 years or more ago this would have been, "Are non-internet applications dead?"
There's things the cloud does better than desktop applications, and in those places I'm sure non-cloud applications will become increasingly rare. But there's plenty of applications where you might not want to use the cloud, the benefits don't outweigh the costs, or the complexity just isn't worth it.
It's a new tool, and it's a better tool than desktop applications for many things. However, you don't throw away a hammer when you buy a screwdriver, you simply reserve it for when a nail needs to be driven.